The philosopher George Santayana famously said “Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it.” But learning history alone is not enough. It’s necessary we heed history’s lessons and act accordingly. Americans may be at or near the point we need to turn to history and reckon with what our future may hold in store for us. For that exercise, I would suggest we take a look at the historical course of ancient Rome.
Polybius was a Greek historian who lived in 208-125 BCE and recorded the history of Rome from 264 to 146 in his Histories. He was fascinated by Rome’s quick success that in less than sixty years had led to the defeat of the Macedonian king in 168 BCE and subjugation of Greece and the destruction of Carthage and Corinth in 146 BCE. But Polybius was more than a chronicler of historical events. He wanted to explain Rome’s success and even more predict its future as a state.
Based on Aristotle’s political thinking, Polybius inferred that the combination of the three types of government, the rule of one, the rule of few and the rule of many was at the heart of Rome’s success. Roman government rest power to two consuls as commanders in chief, a Senate of selected aristocrats, and the plebeians (the demos) that elected the consuls and other state officials. The checks and balances these three poles of power could apply on each other were the guarantor of keeping the system from devolving into the tyranny (rule of one) or the anarchy of the many.
But Polybius was also aware of Plato’s dire prediction in the Republic. In it, Socrates makes the point that when a political system does not live up to its principles it gradually decays and finally collapses. Irresponsible pandering to the many (read populism) and self-serving behavior by the rich and privileged (read inequality) eventually pit one against the other creating turmoil, thus, opening the way for a strongman to appear as savior of the state. But the strongman also gets corrupted by power and is overthrown by envious oligarchs. When their excesses have offended enough the common sense of fairness, the demos rises and restores democracy again.
Although Polybius reasoned that Rome had become successful due to its system of checks and balances, he also concluded that Rome would inevitably fall victim to the cycle of alternating modes of governance. Following Polybius’s death, Rome continued to expand its power westward to Spain and the Gaul and eastward to Asia Minor, Syria and Egypt. None of that success would, however, avert Rome’s march toward the fate Polybius had predicted in his Histories. By the time Julius Caesar had come into the picture, Romans had started to realize their Republic was losing its vibrancy and foundational principles. Generals and Senators were plotting for power, politics had become theatrical, and political oratory had ceased to communicate ideas and visions about the state but instead was used for personal aggrandizement (does it sound familiar?).
Cicero was the last politician and intellectual to rally to a fruitless attempt to save the Republic by appealing to the value of a mutual respect among citizens and between citizen and motherland. To no avail though. He was assassinated five days after Julius Caesar’s murder in the Senate. What followed was the rapid devolution of the Roman Republic toward tyranny ending with the declaration of Octavianus as Emperor after his victory over Mark Anthony in 31 BCE. Augustus Octavianus retained the Senate but only as a cosmetic fixture just for appearances.
Rome as empire remained alive for another 300 years but it had lost its original republican soul. Poets would continue to compose verses, philosophers would expound on their thoughts and science would continue to develop. But political power and the strings of freedom were in the hands of single rulers and praetorian backers.
The history of Rome as a republic and its inglorious end as decayed empire rotten from inside is instructive for the US. For one thing, it was the combination of governance systems (the rule of one, the few, the many) that informed the framers of the constitution when they established a President as commander in chief, a Senate and lower House as representatives of the people and an independent judiciary, and declared this government to be of the people, by the people, from the people. As the ancient Romans intended to do, this tripartite system was supposed to keep the Republic robust and viable though checks and balances. The Roman Republic was fatally wounded when the checks and balances were no more.
What are the signs that America may be at the same tipping point that Rome found itself in the last part of the BC era? We have a president who presents himself as the singular savior of the working class and average citizen; uses fearmongering, falsehoods and lies to shape or bend public opinion to his way; breaks norms out of whimsical and self-serving behavior; defies the Congress and rules by executive orders; values his opinion and intellect over the informed views of his own administration; and interferes, to the point of obstruction, in the wheels of justice to protect himself and those he values as relatives or friends.
We also have a split Congress in which Republican Senators and Representatives refuse to exercise their constitutional obligation to check the President, paralyzed by the stranglehold he has on their party base. The Senate’s leader, Republican Mitch McConnell, may have concluded that the Trumpian era is destined to be short-lived. But what if this new politics engenders subsequent demagogues with authoritarian impulses? What if Congress and the Courts become conditioned to acquiesce to future Presidents’ autocratic proclivities? Don’t we run the risk to slowly slide into a Roman-style decline of American republicanism?
As Socrates, Polybius and Cicero pointed out centuries ago, political systems survive if their foundational principles are preserved. Our system’s foundational principle is checks and balances. The moment Congress turns its back to that mission and the judiciary is politically compromised, we are destined to meet our own Emperor Augustus as the Romans did 2000 years ago.
* The insights of Polybius regarding Rome’s success and potential downfall come from Arthur Herman’s The Cave and the Light: Plato versus Aristotle, and the Struggle for the Soul of Western Civilization (2013).
Correction and Clarification: A reader of the blog noted that my use of the term illegal immigrants from Central America should exclude those who seek asylum to the US. She is correct. The broader point still remains; namely, immigration, whether illegal or for asylum purposes, will continue as long as the world fails to create the conditions so that the root causes of migration, violence, intolerance and economic, no longer afflict the lives of people around the globe.
Let's Reason 
Very interesting article, personally I think a fall if such magnitude formation like most there is a transformation than fall. I mean Alexander the Great empire transformed into various kingdoms from his generals and Rome to West Rome and Byzantium (East Rome) and Ottoman empire became after parts of the Byzantine empire statrted decomposing…I consider that USA today under any leadership will have more days of longevity to count…The extent of how many it depend of the wisdom of its ruling hierarchy…
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